Based on EIA’s 2013 Annual Energy Outlook, policy and market factors–efficiency and fuel economy standards, specifically–are contributing significantly to reduced emissions. EIA projects that by 2040 the U.S. will produce more energy than it consumes, but thanks to evolving consumer preferences and technology innovation, the U.S is moving toward increased domestic production, higher use of clean energy resources, more efficient vehicles, and reduced imports.
Carbon emission projections continue to decline. Since 2009, EIA has reduced its projected CO2 emissions by 2040 in every annual report. This year’s report followed the same trend, resulting in a carbon emissions projection 15% below their 2009 projection (see chart below). It appears that smart energy policy is starting to do its job to reduce CO2 emissions. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_carbonemiss.cfm